The daily briefing for people who shape Europe's energy transition — RFNBO, CBAM, batteries, the Grids Package, GHG Protocol and the IAA, read and weighed every morning.
Lens
Carbon crossing
The certificate price at which each route becomes the cheapest tonne.
CBAM 2034+ — who wins at which certificate price
At full CBAM phase-in, each quoted route is a line: intercept = quoted price, slope = embedded emissions. Crossings are switching prices; the dashed line marks today — from EU default values (worst decile) to verified near-zero processes.
Emission factors from the EU CBAM Implementing Regulation (default values, EU worst-decile). Fossil prices manually maintained; WtP updates with the EUA price.
What a refinery pays at the feed-in point.
Commercial willingness-to-pay for RFNBO hydrogen delivered to a German refinery, net of transmission tariffs. The output is the price an offtaker can charge at the producer's feed-in point.
Legal basis: Quota trajectory per BImSchG §37a Abs. 4 as amended by Drucksache 21/5530 (adopted 23.04.2026) — 26.5 % by 2030 → 65 % by 2040. RFNBO multiplier per §37 Abs. 3 BImSchV. German transmission per BNetzA WANDA Festlegung GBK-24-02-2#4 (25 €/kWh/h/a HHV, CPI-adjusted). Danish transmission per Energinet DHB1 capacity framework (stakeholder range 10–20 €/kWh/h/a).
THG-saving basis
Target Value − Actual CI (commercial): credit = mult × E × (FFC × (1 − Q %) − actual CI). Buyer-aligned accounting — credits only the gap to the regulatory target.
RFNBO GHG reduction vs. FFC90%
70 %85 %100 %
Actual CI of the delivered RFNBO. Minimum 70 % under §37 BImSchV.
Market drivers
Initial quota price300€/tCO₂
100300500
Initial gas price30€/MWh
Initial ETS price65€/tCO₂
ETS growth5.0% p.a.
Offtake agreement
Contract start year2030
202720332040
First year of RFNBO delivery. Watch the multiplier fade-out (2037–2040) move in and out of the contract window.
Offtake tenor15years
5 yr12 yr20 yr
Contract duration.
Annual price escalation2.0% p.a.
0 %2.5 %5 %
P₀ is set such that the offtaker's NPV equals the yearly-WtP NPV (offtaker indifference).
Offtaker WACC8.0%
Discount rate for the offtaker-indifference levelization.
Producer WACC8.0%
Project WACC for discounting the escalating contract cash flow.
Transmission (entry + exit)
DE core network · entry0.12
DE core network · exit0.12
DK backbone · entry0.07
DK backbone · exit0.07
DE tariff (WANDA)25€/kW/a
BNetzA Festlegung · reviewed every 3 yr + CPI.
DK tariff (Energinet)15€/kW/a
Final tariff pending · stakeholder range 10–20 €/kW/a HHV.
Load factor8000h/a
Booked capacity hours · converted via 39.4 kWh/kg HHV.
Subquota support floor
Apply subquota floor
Under the RFNBO sub-quota (§37a Abs. 4a BImSchG), WtP is floored at the next-best RFNBO procurement price. Only kicks in if the market-driven WtP falls below it.
Alternative RFNBO price7.0€/kg
3 €7.5 €12 €
Levelized WtP at Feed-In
—€/kg H₂
Flat equivalent price · offtaker-indifference over the contract tenor.
Producer LCOH
—€/kg H₂
Escalating contract cash flow discounted at Producer WACC.
Contract price path (nominal)
Year 1 · 2030—
→
Year 15 · 2044—
Pₜ = P₀ × (1 + e)^(t−1)
Annual WtP at feed-in · contract window shaded
Floor
Contract price
Methodology — Quotas per BImSchG §37a(4). Multiplier per §37(3) BImSchV: 3.0 through 2036 → 2.5 / 2.0 / 1.5 / 1.0 (2037–2040+). FFC 94.1 gCO₂/MJ — the §37a(4) BImSchG Basiswert, from FQD (EU) 2015/652 (RED II Annex V’s own fossil comparator is 94.0; different act, different figure). SMR reference: 0.048 MWh/kg, 0.202 tCO₂/MWh. Transmission: tariff € / kW / a × 39.4 kWh/kg HHV / load factor. Credit formulas:Target Value − Actual CI = mult × E × (FFC × (1 − Q %) − actual CI); Reference Value − Actual CI = mult × E × (FFC − actual CI) per §37b Abs. 3 BImSchG. Contract logic: yearly WtP is levelized at Offtaker WACC to P_flat. With escalation e, P₀ is set so that the escalating stream's NPV at Offtaker WACC equals the yearly WtP NPV (offtaker indifference). Producer LCOH discounts that contract stream at Producer WACC.
The quotes
Every figure the verdicts above are computed from, with its basis and vintage.
Carbon & power
EUA
EU Allowance · settlement · €/tCO₂
—
DE Baseload
Day-ahead · SMARD.de · €/MWh
—
TTF Natural Gas
Front-month · ICE · €/MWh
—
Finance
EUR/USD
ECB reference rate
—
EURIBOR 3M
Project-finance reference · %
—
10Y Bund
Risk-free rate DE · %
—
ECB Main Rate
Key interest rate · %
—
SOFR
USD overnight rate · %
—
Copper
Grid-expansion proxy · $/t
—
Sources: Argus (NH₃, manual) · SMARD.de (baseload, daily) · ICE/EEX (EUA & TTF, manual) · ECB Data Portal · NY Fed (SOFR) · FRED (copper). NH₃ converted from USD at the current EUR/USD rate.