Carbon crossing
The certificate price at which each route becomes the cheapest tonne.
CBAM 2034+ — who wins at which certificate price
At full CBAM phase-in, each quoted route is a line: intercept = quoted price, slope = embedded emissions. Crossings are switching prices; the dashed line marks today — from the act's fallback route (any unlisted origin) to verified near-zero processes.
Emission factors of the reference and country routes are the CBAM default values of Annex I to Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 (default values under Art. 7(7) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956), as replaced by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740 — read per exporting country and per CN code, column «total emissions», raised by the mark-up the Annex prescribes for the year selected: 10 % in 2026, 20 % in 2027, 30 % from 2028; fertilisers 1 %. The reference route is the Annex's own table «Other Countries and Territories», which the Annex assigns to every unlisted origin. Rows marked house illustration are technology cases, not act values; aluminium is charged on direct emissions only (Annex II of the base Regulation), and Norway is outside the CBAM (Annex III). The phase-in panel deducts the CBAM benchmark of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 (Annex point 5, column B) times the free-allocation share of the year. Values to be revised by December 2027 at the latest. Fossil prices manually maintained.
The quotes
Every figure the verdicts above are computed from, with its basis and vintage.
Carbon & power
DE Baseload
Day-ahead · SMARD.de · €/MWh
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Finance
EUR/USD
ECB reference rate
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EURIBOR 3M
Project-finance reference · %
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10Y Bund
Risk-free rate DE · %
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ECB Main Rate
Key interest rate · %
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SOFR
USD overnight rate · %
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Copper
Grid-expansion proxy · $/t
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Sources: a licensed price assessment (NH₃, entered by hand — not public) · SMARD.de (baseload, daily) · EEX primary auction report (EUA, each auction day) · Bundesnetzagentur „Aktuelle Lage der Gasversorgung" (THE day-ahead and front-month from EEX data, daily; the German hub, usually 1–3 €/MWh above Dutch TTF) · IMF primary commodity prices (TTF day-ahead, monthly average, at the ECB monthly US$/EUR — the second number in the row and the fallback) · ECB Data Portal · NY Fed (SOFR) · FRED (copper). NH₃ converted from USD at the current EUR/USD rate.